Happily ever after: The tale of water and food.

 “To reduce poverty and assure food security, African agriculture must grow at 4 to 5% per year, more than twice the rate of recent decades” (Dowswell et al., 1997).  

As mentioned above agricultural expansion (be patient! This will be covered in next weeks blog) is essential in ensuring food security. Despite being dated, the theology of the quote is still relevant. Especially when considering the implications on future population growth and climate change on agricultural demand (Fereres et al., 2011). This post will explore the theology surrounding the food-water relationship and discuss the ways in which Africa could gain food security.

Food Security is defined by the World Food Summit (1996) as “existing when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy active life” (WHO, 2012).

The relationship between food security and water resources is not a complex one. Water is a restricting parameter of agriculture. This becomes particularly noticeable within Africa, due to the concentration of water scarce regions (stressed within my first post). Lack of reliable water sources (as a result of erratic and seasonal rainfall patterns) can result in famine and under nourishment, especially in areas which are reliant on agricultural based incomes.

Given the competition for water resources in the agriculture sector and uncertainty associated with future climate change, the examination of this relationship is vital. Lobell et al. (2008) used a series of crop models to predict changes in agricultural production to 2030. The paper indicated reduced crop yields will be a resulting factor of climate change. In many cases this will create a state of food insecurity. An alternative option, to mitigate this, would to be increase imports of food from regions which will not be effected as badly by future climatic changes (virtual water). Sourcing food from a variety of sources overcomes the localised risks of food shortages (i.e. if drought is an issue in a local region, it is not likely to influence crop growth in other countries), thus increasing food security (Allen, 2012).

However this in itself is not a solution. As outsourcing commodities, in a bid to increase security, will undermine the wish to be self-sufficient. For many countries in Africa this will not be economically viable. In addition to modelling crop patterns, Lobell et al. (2008) predicted there will also be a increase in commodity demand and decreased supply of corn, wheat and rice. As food shortages become a global issue a rise in global food market prices is anticipated (FOA, 2007). Whether African countries be able to keep up with such a rise is controversial and reliant on their future economic development.