Crop Models: A basic introduction

Crop models have 'cropped' up a few times in my previous posts. Mathews et al., (2007) highlighted the importance of incorporating crop models when considering agricultural policy. This factor has resulted in a boom in crop modelling studies throughout academia and, therefore, provides a great focus for my blog over the next few months.

So if you know me I love a good model. They make sense. We get along. Models are used in a number of different contexts: Hydrological, Climate simulation and Agriculture. Crop models are a recent development, mirroring the trend in increased popularity of modelling in academic geography.

So what is a crop model? (Stay with me, I know this could be a bit intense if you are not a model lover like myself). The aim of a crop simulation model is to estimate crop yields as a function of certain parameters including weather, soil conditions and potential agricultural management policies. This is done by firstly simulating natural conditions. Certain parameters (within the model) are altered in order to create probabilistic future scenarios (such as changes in soil moisture), thus allowing future crop yields (under these scenarios) to be calculated. A classic example of this would be predicting the effects of changes in precipitation, as result of climate change, on agricultural yields (Kang et al., 2009). 

The use of these models is particularly relevant to agricultural in the African regions. Exponential population growth and climate change are both factors which will put pressures on the African agriculture sector. Based on this premises crop models (in combination with development models) should be incorporated into future policy decisions (Dourado-Neto et al., 1998). 

Crop Modelling is becoming more common in academic research (Argawall and Mall, 2002; Tubiello et al., 2000). However, as with all modelling studies, a certain level of uncertainty is associated. This uncertainty is something I wish to address in a later post so will not bore you with the details now.

This was just a brief introduction to the overall aims of crop modelling. Over the coming few weeks I hope to explore the different applications (and coinciding crop models) of agriculture studies, the uncertainty associated with crop modelling and how these models can help achieve sustainable agriculture.